The Low Down On Green Living
June 11th, 2008
Electric Cars for 2010
Stumble it!
by John Addison, courtesy of GreenOptions.com
With oil prices rocketing past $130 per barrel, a growing number of vehicle makers are planning to offer electric vehicles by 2010. Zero gasoline will be used.
Over 40,000 electric vehicles (EV) are currently used in the United States. Most are used in fleet applications, from maintenance to checking parking meters; these EVs are mostly limited to 25 mph speed and 20 mile range. A growing number of fleet EVs, however, are early trails of a new generation of freeway-speed EVs that will be available to the mass consumer market in 2010.
Mitsubishi is on target to sell its electric vehicle in the U.S. in 2010. The i-EV is a friendly looking sub-compact which easily handles freeway speeds. It’s expected 100 mile-plus range per charge will meet the needs of urban dwellers and most in suburbia. The drive system uses three permanent magnetic synchronous motors which receive power from a 16kWh lithium battery stack. Tokyo Electric Power is currently testing ten i-EV
Nissan’s and Renault’s famous CEO, Carlos Ghosn, plans to be selling electric vehicles in the U.S. market in 2010. He anticipates more cities following London’s model of expensive congestion fees, with fee exemptions and preferred parking for zero-emission vehicles. In many markets, Nissan will offer electric vehicles with permanently installed lithium batteries that will be trickle charged. Nissan owns 51% of Automotive Energy Supply Corporation, which plans to be producing lithium batteries for 10,000 vehicles annually by 2010. Plant expansion has begun to produce lithium batteries for 60,000 electric vehicles annually.
By 2012, Ghosn plans to have a Renault-Nissan alliance offering a wide range of electric vehicles in many major markets, charging ahead of all competition. Economist Article
In Israel and Denmark, Renault and Nissan will partner with Project Better Place to sell electric vehicles without batteries. Project Better Place will lease batteries that can be quickly exchanged at many locations. The exchange will take no longer than a traditional gasoline fill-up, appealing to motorists needing extended range. The battery lease will cost a fraction of what most now spend on gasoline.
Popular in Europe, Think will bring its electric vehicle to the U.S. Think city reaches a top speed of 65 miles per hour and can drive up to 110 miles on a single charge. Think city meets all European and US federal motor vehicle safety requirements. At the Geneva Motorshow earlier this year, Think announced a strategic partnership with energy giant General Electric, also an investor in Think. By 2011 look for a larger TH!NK Ox. Think has also established partnerships in the US with battery suppliers A123 and EnerDel. Think has established a U.S. headquarters and will begin sales in the U.S. before 2010. A123 Technology Review Article
In 2009, the smart ev may be available in the U.S. The cars 70/70 specs are appealing for city drivers: 70 mile range, 70 mile per hour freeway speed. Daimler’s smart ev is in trail in the UK with the Energy Saving Trust, Islington and Coventry Councils, Lloyds Pharmacy, EDF Energy, BT, and other fleets. To achieve a range of 72 miles, it is using the Zebra sodium-nickel-chloride battery which has caused maintenance difficulties in some U.S. fleets.
The cityZENN is planned for a top speed of 80 mph and a range of 250 miles. Powered by EEStor barium-titanate ceramic ultracapacitors, the cityZENN will be rechargeable in less than 5 minutes! Venture capitalists are betting that stealth EEStor is real. On Friday, May 30, ZENN Motor Company announced that it had raised another $15 million dollars.
Most major auto makers continue to believe that most U.S. customers will insist on ranges exceeding 250 miles and a national infrastructure of fuel refilling (or recharging) in five minutes. Even as GM announces factory closings and plummeting sales, CEO Richard Wagner states that GM is committed to bring the plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt to market by the end of 2010. If it can deliver at under $30,000, the vehicle will offer tough competition to some of the smaller EV players.
As Toyota solidifies its number one global market share leadership, it also remains on target to deliver a plug-in hybrid to the U.S. market by the end of 2010. It is likely to have an all-electric range of 40 miles and a gasoline range 10X that amount. Watch Toyota use an expanded line of hybrid vehicles to unset GM, making Toyota the market leader is the U.S.
May rained on every auto maker’s parade in the U.S., except Honda, which set sales records with its fuel efficient Civic. Honda is passing Chrysler to become the #4 seller in the U.S. Honda is rumored to be bringing a new hybrid to the U.S. next year priced in the mid-teens. This will give hybrids a big boost in market share from the current 3% of total vehicle sales.
While I was giving a speech at the Fuel Cell 2008 , Honda announced that it would lease 200 Clarity FCX hydrogen fuel cell cars for $600 per month, including maintenance. In June, it will start selecting from 50,000 who have expressed interest in the 270-mile range four-door sedan. The FCX Clarity is aerodynamic and beautifully styled. Honda’s new hybrid is likely to have a similar body style.
Some critics have dismissed electric vehicles as golf carts for retirees and sport car toys for millionaires. These critics have missed a fundamental market shift that started with the success of hybrid-electric cars, light electric vehicles, and with e-scooters. Customer enthusiasm for electric vehicles is the result of many factors:
+ Oil Prices
+ ZEV Cities & Congestion Tax
+ Electronic drive simplifies auto design
+ Vehicle weight reduction with electric accessories and components
+ Reduced maintenance because of few mechanical components
+ GHG Regulation
+ Battery technology advances that reduce cost and weight
+ Increased battery safety
+ Success of hybrid-electrics
At the FRA Renewable Energy Investor Conference (my presentation handouts), I led a panel discussion about electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Major private equity and project finance investors were optimistic in sessions about electric vehicles, solar power, wind power, and carbon trading. Many expressed discouragement in the biofuels sessions, but at the same time saw increased opportunities with bioenergy and bio-methane from landfills.
In a few years, millions will be driving full-featured freeway-speed four-door sedan electric vehicles. Look for a shift away from foreign oil to riding on local renewable energy.
John Addison publishes the Clean Fleet Report and speaks at transportation and energy conferences.
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Comments
JohnG
June 12th, 2008 at 11:02 am
“Venture capitalists are betting that stealth EEStor is real”
Getting a little carried away, I fear. One venture capitalist, Kleiner Perkins tossed a couple million into a long shot proposal, they have not done anything since.
There are a lot of skeptics, including me, that are convinced the EEStor thing is not real. Noone will answer the straight question’ Has a prototype been built/” Since Zenn has not paid the milestone payment for verifying the permittivity after two years, how can one be optimisitic. Delay after delay, they have spent the two years learning how to make a pure barium titanate which they could have purchased.
The fine art of hype…
JohnG
June 12th, 2008 at 11:03 am
The KP investment was over two years ago
Jay Draiman
June 12th, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Our war for energy independence and economic sustainability
The US government and other governments are not serious about energy efficiency and renewable energy development and implementation – they are too busy playing politics and capitulating to the Oil Companies.
IT is time to get series to avert an economic catastrophe – I hope it is not too late
The world needs to invest $50 trillion in energy in coming decades, building some 1,400 nuclear power plants and vastly expanding wind power, solar power, geothermal energy in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, according to an energy study released Friday.
The report by the Paris-based International Energy Agency envisions an “energy revolution” that would greatly reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels while maintaining steady economic growth.
“Meeting this target of 50 percent cut in emissions and replacing fossil fuel represents a formidable challenge, and we would require immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale,” IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said.
The scenario for deeper cuts would require massive investment in energy technology development and deployment, a wide-ranging campaign to dramatically increase energy efficiency, and a wholesale shift to renewable sources of energy.
Assuming an average 3.4 percent global economic growth over the 2010-2050 period, governments and the private sector would have to make additional investments of $50 trillion in energy, or 1.2 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, the report said.
That would be an investment more than three times the current size of the entire U.S. economy.
In addition, the world would have to construct 38 new nuclear power plants each year, and wind-power turbines would have to be increased by 18,000 units annually, solar energy output would have to be increased 20 fold every year.
Let us not forget as we are increasing the use of renewable energy and energy efficiency – the world population is increasing – the demand for energy by advancement in technology worldwide is also increasing. We have to take these factors into account.
Oil is going to hit at least $200 per barrel, gasoline at the pump will hit $6 or more per gallon, in some countries it is already $10 per gallon.
Most of the money would be in the commercialization of energy technologies developed by governments and the private sector.
“If industry is convinced there will be policy for serious, actions for accelerated development of renewable energy and efficiency, then these investments will be made by the private sector.”
People are hurting financially and economically, this must end, we should strive for a thriving economy with new technology for renewable energy and efficiency.
We have the technology and knowhow let us stop playing politics – unite our people and our nation in a common goal to avert an economic disaster and maintain our quality of life for generations to come.
Let us serve as an example to the rest of the world.
Jay Draiman, Energy Analyst – June 12, 2008
Sarah Bolthouse
June 17th, 2008 at 10:09 am
I appreciate your article informing readers of the future opportunities to drive an alternative energy vehicle. Unfortunately, this article only highlighted foreign automakers. US automakers are placing significant resources in developing alternative energy vehicles as well. GM and Ford both offer hybrid vehicles today. General Motors will have multiple plug-in hybrids available by the year 2010. The GM electric car (the Chevy Volt) will also be available by the end of 2010. Tesla Automotive is an American company that is currently selling electric vehicles.
There’s no doubt that alternative energy transportation is a critical factor in improving the health of our environment. Buying an American vehicle is critical to improving the health of our economy and enabling American workers to purchase environmental friendly products of their own. The next time you shop for a new car, please consider not only the environment, but also the economy. Your choice can benefit both.
Sarah Bolthouse, Automotive Engineer
Donovan
June 17th, 2008 at 10:09 am
My understanding is that electric cars produced by the major automobile industries will cost more because of the costs to modify the current factories to produce these cars. There are other companies manufacturing highway capable cars that are either available now or will be available before the big automakers release their models. These companies include:
Miles Electric Vehicles http://www.milesev.com/highwayspeed.aspx?flash=off
Tesla Motors (this is an expensive car) http://www.teslamotors.com/
Universal Electric Vehicle http://www.universalelectricvehicle.com/spyder.html
Venturi Motors (this car is only for the ultra rich) http://www.venturifetish.fr/fetish.html
Phoenix Motor Cars http://www.phoenixmotorcars.com/vehicles/index.php
My goal is to get an SUT and an SUV from Phoenix.
John Addison
June 23rd, 2008 at 8:45 am
Thank you for the comments and debates about the fate of some future technology. The articles’ discussion about the plans of some auto makers is no guaranteeing that all will deliver in 2010. As some of you note, some may never get to market.
There are currently hundreds of electric vehicles being offered; some are actually being delivered. The article made no attempt to cover them all. If you want to look at many offerings, follow this link: http://www.alibaba.com/showroom/Electric_Vehicle/–1201————————.html
Sarah, you made a good point about U.S. manufacturers deserving more coverage. The Chrysler GEM has sold over 40,000 EVs. They were omitted because this article focused on freeway speed EVs, but Chrysler has a real success with the GEM. Ford Escape Hybrids have been converted to plug-ins by fleets. This article did not cover conversions or hybrids. Yes, Miles is doing well. I have interviewed happy customers. As the article states, there are over 40,000 EVs in use in the United States today. If you can meet your needs with a 25 mph speed vehicle, you can buy today.
I loved riding in a Tesla and hope that they overcome all there problems that have made them 18 months late. Here is my Tesla article. http://www.cleanfleetreport.com/vault/tesla.htm
John, you have good reason to be skeptical about EEstor. A modest VC investment is no guarantee of success. A123 has attracted over ten times the investment that was made in EEstor. We will see if ZENN delivers a car using EEstor by 2010, or ever.
Electric vehicles are already successful in many fleet applications and with individuals in places like university towns. In three years, new affordable freeway speed electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will accelerate the current success. Yes, there will be some companies that succeed and some that fail.
sj.greenlady
November 14th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Why wait until 2010 when you can order a BG C100 now? I am so excited to have found this information:
First legitimate electric car coming to the market.
Safe, reliable and affordable.
Check it out…………
Article:
http://planetgreen.discovery.com/tech-transport/electric-c100-vehicle.html
Video-You Tube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hog9wpZCg8U
BeGreen Advocate
A Passion for Plug-ins | Clean Fleet Report
December 16th, 2008 at 5:48 pm
[...] hybrids will face growing competition from electric vehicles, which have more limited range, but have no engine and therefore never require a fuel like gasoline [...]
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August 17th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
With an increase in the carbon emission and the depleting fossil fuel there is a need for manufacturing electric vehicles. With major automotive companies such as Nissan, Toyota and Ford planning to launch their hybrid electric vehicles this will definitely have an impact on the environment. I feel every automotive company should introduce one of it’s electric variant. Lets see which company will satisfy the consumer.
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